Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory 23 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH AN 8 NM ROUND
EYE, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, A
221634Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 128 KTS, AND A 221740Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 127 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
125 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE WESTERN WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON A 221217Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. WITH LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TY 22W IS TRACKING NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AROUND TAU 12, TY 22W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS,
GRADUALLY RECURVING TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STR AND
BEGINS INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND TAU 36.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASED VWS VALUES (>30 KTS) WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH COMPLETION PRIOR TO TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. FOLLOWING THE RECURVE,
THE NUMERICAL MODELS BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGE, INCREASING TO A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 283 NM BY TAU 72 WITH THE NAVGEM SOLUTION AS AN
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD AFTER ETT, THUS THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
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