Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory 19 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 722 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 182250Z
ASCAT-B DIRECT PASS OVER THE STORM SHOWING A CLOSED LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SAME ASCAT PASS WITH A WIDE
SWATH OF 30KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC. THE STORM IS
INTENSIFYING AS THE LOW LEVELS CONSOLIDATE AND IT REMAINS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SSTS (29-30C). TD 22W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING AND SETS THE INITIAL FORECAST
PHILOSPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
   B. THE STR WILL REMAIN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND DRIVE TD 22W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TD 22W WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 65KTS BY TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VWS (10-20 KTS) AND WARM
SSTS. NAVGEM IS AN OUTLIER ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS PLACED TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS A 225 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AT TAU 72 LEADING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 22W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY, REACHING 90KTS AS IT REACHES THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE FORECAST
PROGRESSES WITH AN ACROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 320 NM BY TAU 120. THE SAME
FORECAST REASONING APPLIED THROUGH TAU 72 PERSISTS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST.//
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