Tropical Storm BAILU Advisory 24 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE RAIN
BANDS ARE TRAILING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE VENTILATED BY STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS ALSO WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT
CELL EAST OF OKINAWA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED CENTER IN THE LLC THAT COINCIDED WITH A
CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM
TAIWAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND RCTP AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 12W IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS, IN
ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS CAUSED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C REMAIN
FAVORABLE.  TS 12W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TS BAILU NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, BRUSH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN AROUND
TAU 12, CROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN
CHINA NEAR XIAMEN AFTER TAU 24. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL ENHANCE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS OVER THE NEXT
6HRS. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF TAIWAN AND
CHINA WILL GRADUALLY AND THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48 AS THE CYCLONE DRAGS DEEPER INTO THE CHINESE
INTERIOR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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