Tropical Storm CEMPAKA Advisory 23 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA)
WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.4N 107.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 382 NM WEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: N/A
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY, AND SPARSE SURFACE REPORTS FROM COASTAL VIETNAM AND CHINA
CONFIRM THAT THE VORTEX OF 10W REMAINS INTACT. CONVECTION HAS WANED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION
PERSISTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING FROM
EASTERN CHINA TOWARDS TAIWAN.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W WILL NOT SURVIVE MUCH LONGER. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX REMAINS INTACT AS IT MOVES OFF-SHORE INTO THE
HOT WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN, INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A RDIGE BUIDLING OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL SUPPRESS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACKERS ARE MAINTAINING THE CYCLONIC LOOP
TO NEAR OR AROUND HAINAN, BUT INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN SHARPLY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONLY HWRF KEEPS AN INTENSITY OVER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONFIRMS THAT THERE IS SIMPLY TOO
MUCH SHEAR FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN STRENGTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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