Tropical Storm LEKIMA Advisory 11 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
101731Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE, INTERACTION WITH LAND AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE THE
PRIMARY WEAKENING MECHANISM. TS 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST OF CHINA THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. AT TAU 48, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) AS IT TRACKS CLOSE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST CHINA.//
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