Tropical Storm LEKIMA Advisory 07 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A
061854Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE,
AND EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30C). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77
KNOTS). TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE
BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE.
   B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
NORTHERN TAIWAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 190NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72 NEAR TAIWAN, THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK WHICH COULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER
TAU 48. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NEAR TAIWAN.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W WILL TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS
IN A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO THE EAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR EASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
AFTER TAU 72 AND IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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