MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 12// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 061854Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR- RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30C). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE. B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD NORTHERN TAIWAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 190NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 NEAR TAIWAN, THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK WHICH COULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER TAU 48. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR TAIWAN. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W WILL TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS IN A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO THE EAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR EASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72 AND IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN