Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory 20 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 191753Z ATMS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD,
DEFINED CENTER WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED
BETWEEN THE 191703Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS, 191940Z ADT ESTIMATE
OF 28 KNOTS AND MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS).
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A
191807Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS
CONTINUES TO BROADEN BASED ON A 191327Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING
30-35 KNOT WINDS SEPARATING FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A 191253Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ASYMMETRIC FIELD OF GALE FORCE WINDS STRETCHING SOUTH IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE FUELING THE PERSISTENT HEAVY CONVECTION. THE WIND RADII
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL WIND RADII CONSENSUS (RVCN) AND
REFLECTS THE EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS. TS 06W IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 70NM AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION DUE TO THE BROAD
NATURE OF THE CENTER. AS TS 06W APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
SOUTH KOREA NEAR TAU 12, IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY
TAU 36.//
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