Tropical Storm KHANUN Advisory 13 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING SHOWING STEADY IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS
BASED ON A 121736Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM
PAGASA. THESE DATA SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
BANDS ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED OVER LUZON. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A PREVIOUS 121039Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 34 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER, YET MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE IN-
PHASE WESTWARD SYSTEM TRACK. CURRENTLY TS 24W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
     A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
     B. TS 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE WITH
MODEST IMPROVEMENT AS IT TRACKS OVER LUZON AND EMERGES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UNOBSTRUCTED BY LAND TS 24W IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY BEYOND TAU 12 REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS HINDERING OUTFLOW ON
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE POSSIBILITY
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE TAIWAN AND LUZON STRAITS IS ANTICIPATED, GREATLY
EXTENDING THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM.
     C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TS 24W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER HAINAN NEAR TAU 72 AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
TS 24W WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN JUST
AFTER TAU 96 OVER VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND
AND DISSIPATE FURTHER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BOTH SPEED AND THE GENERAL WESTERN MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TRACKER
POSITIONS BEGINNING AROUND TAU 12 AS TS 24W FURTHER CONSOLIDATES IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND THIS UNCERTAINTY IS CARRIED FORWARD IN
LATER TAUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
NNNN