Tropical Storm EIGHT Advisory 19 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (HIGOS)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS  OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND THE LLC FEATURE
PRESENT IN THE 181516Z GPM 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
55KTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KTS) TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED 6HR EIR STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE
CHINESE COAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 APPROXIMATELY 65NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND CHINA, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING VWS, WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO
FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID JUST TO
THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.//
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