Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory 19 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED
AND OFFSET EASTWARD OF A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
A LARGE FEEDER BAND TRAILS THE LLC SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN AND
INTO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (INVEST 91W). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP
AND A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM JMA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND CONSISTENT WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT CAUSED BY AN INDUCED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS AT 30C) ARE PROVIDING VENTILATION AND FUEL TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TS 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS AT TAUS 12-24. AFTERWARD, COOLING
SSTS, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND, BY TAU 72, DISSIPATE IN THE SEA OF
JAPAN AFTER IT CROSSES THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTH KOREA. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING TO OVER 300 NM AT TAU 72,
LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 36
THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.//
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