Tropical Storm FAXAI Advisory 04 Σεπ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
USING A 181506Z 89GHZ AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE TOGETHER WITH THE
SHEARED CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON CONTINUATION OF PREVIOUS ANALYSES AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAINING AT T2.5. WITH A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TS 14W, OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE WEST, WITH
LOW TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS)
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. TS 14W IS TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT CELL
DIMINISHES IN THE COMING DAYS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO
BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAPAN. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AT
THIS EXTENDED RANGE, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
WITH SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK ERRORS. THE ECMWF AND
GALWEM FAVOR A TRACK INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, WHEREAS THE GFS SUGGESTS
A TIGHTER RECURVE TOWARD THE KANTO PLAIN. THUS, THE TIMING AND
EXTENT OF THE RECURVE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL
JTWC FORECAST TRACK SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION AND DEPICTS THE
BEGINNING OF A RECURVE TOWARD CENTRAL JAPAN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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