MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 04// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 022100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 124.1E. TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IMAGERY FROM THE MIYAKO-JIMA RADAR STATION SHOWS MODERATE RAIN BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER ENVELOPE OF MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA OF 43 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED OVER. A 021327Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE HIGHEST WINDS CONCENTRATED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SMALLER WIND FIELD REFLECTED IN THE ADJUSTED WIND RADII. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLY JET AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE ALSO WARM NEAR 29 CELSIUS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST IS CURRENTLY STEERING TS 05W ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST COURSE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE SUPPORTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. SSTS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR SASEBO, JAPAN AROUND TAU 30. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN TS 05W AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS HONSHU TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TS 05W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 54. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN