MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 01// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PULSATING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 241632Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH. CURRENTLY TD 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS SOMETIME NEAR TAU 48, CHANGING ITS TRAJECTORY TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS, MOST NOTABLY BY THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. BEYOND TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DRIVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SHARPLY INCREASE RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TRACK TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN