MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 033// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED, FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND A 131624Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BETWEEN THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND T3.5 (55 KTS), AND BELOW A 131105Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE LLC WHICH IS INHIBITING CENTRAL CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN CONDUCIVE (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TS 11W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. NEAR TAU 36, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, ERODING THE STR AND ALLOWING TS 11W TO RECURVE POLEWARD AROUND THE STR AXIS, SKIRTING WESTERN SHIKOKU JUST AFTER TAU 30. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ENABLE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12. LAND INTERACTION, UNFAVORABLE (20?30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND COOLER SST (22-25 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOJ. CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD, WITH A SPREAD OF 260 NM AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS IN OVERALL CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TS 11W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT APPROACHES THE WATERS WEST OF HOKKAIDO NEAR TAU 72. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN