MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 010// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM EAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. AN 111648Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS ISOLATED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND PREVIOUS ASCAT DATA. FAVORABLE SST (NEAR 30 CELSIUS) AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE OFFSET BY PERSISTENT, MODERATE (15-20 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, LOW 700-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 40-45% ARE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE. TD 06W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. DUE TO THE WSW-ENE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR, TD 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT NEARS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 30 KTS THROUGH TAU 12. HOWEVER, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK DUE TO A CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VWS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE SOLE OUTLIER, THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION, TRACKS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 24 THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES FROM 50NM TO 180NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN