Tropical Storm JANGMI Advisory 09 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW
LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
BANDING FROM A PARTIAL 081741Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5-2.0 (25-30 KTS)
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 32 KNOTS AT 081800Z. TD 05W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE EAST AND THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER
FAIR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, HOWEVER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IS OFFSETTING THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR SOUTH OF KOREA. DURING THIS
TIME THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS AT
TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW (5-15
KTS) VWS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY THE CONVERGENT FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS CONVERGENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HINDER INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN
TAU 24 TO TAU 36. AT TAU 36, TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS (24-25
DEGREES CELSIUS) AND APPROACHES DEEP WESTERLY FLOW.  AFTER CROSSING
THE KOREA STRAIT, TD 05W WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 48 AS IT MOVES INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 55NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM AND JGSM, FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT OF GLOBAL  MODEL SOLUTIONS LEND HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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