MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECAYING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS NOW DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241554Z ATMS 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING THAT WHEN EXTRAPOLATED TO 241800Z SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM RJTD, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TY 22W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY. B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MIDLATITUDE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 22W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VWS INCREASES TO VERY STRONG LEVELS (40-60 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN