Tropical Storm VONGFONG Advisory 14 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 45//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 36
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST
DUE TO STRONG MIDLATIDUE WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RADAR FIXES FROM JAPANESE
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AND WEAKENING TREND. TS
19W IS ACCELERATING AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO A
GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR POSSIBLY SOONER.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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