MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 41// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07W DOLPHIN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM WEST OF ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL 30 NM EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THE BANDING IS CONFIRMED BY A 161144Z AMSU-B IMAGE, WITH BOTH SATELLITES GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 140 KTS DUE TO THE OVERALL BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 7.0 FROM PTGW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONTINUING LOW VWS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, SOON TO CROSS THE AXIS. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY 07W WILL TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CROSSES THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BY TAU 24, STY DOLPHIN WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS VWS INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT A CONTINUING DOWNWARD TREND IN OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD DUE TO INCREASING VWS, UNFAVORABLE SSTS NORTH OF 25N AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, STARTING ETT AS STY DOLPHIN BEGINS TO BE EMBEDDED IN AN APPROACHING COLD CORE SYSTEM. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, STY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HIGH VWS, COOLING SSTS, AND THE PRESENCE OF COLD DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY FORCE THE SYSTEM TO DECAY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN