Tropical Storm SOUDELOR Advisory 04 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 886 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AS IT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND WIND TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY
OUTLINED 14-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155
KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AND CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 13W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SSTS AT
31 CELSIUS ARE HIGHLY-CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WELL-
ESTABLISHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 160 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 36, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 13W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOWER SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VWS.
STY SOUDELOR WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU
96 BEFORE MAKING A FINAL LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA BEFORE END OF
FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
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