MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 091748Z ATMS IMAGE AND EARLIER 091319Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. TS 05W IS TRACKING RAPIDLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TURN GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR SOUTH OF KOREA. STORM MOTION WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INCREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TS 05W TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE TRANSITION DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN