MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 09// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENT RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER A PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261735Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW REFLECTIVITY BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A PREVIOUS BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PRODUCT SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES NEAR 45 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND RECENT ASCAT PASSES HAVE SHOWN AN ELONGATION OF THE LLCC WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS PREVENTED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TS 03W IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN