MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 29// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 526 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE EYE FEATURE, BUT STILL SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 131631Z NOOA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPHOON DOLPHIN HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY THE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR, MODIFYING AND SLIGHTLY SHIFTING TY 07W NORTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, LEADING TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE MODIFIED STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AND REORIENT TO THE EAST ALLOWING TYPHOON 07W TO TURN POLEWARD. THIS POLEWARD TRACK WILL EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, TRIGGERING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSESUS.// NNNN NNNN