Tropical Storm CHAN-HOM Advisory 06 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 051639Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
REVEALS CURVED BANDS, BUT SLIGHTLY BROKEN ON THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED NOAA-19
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TS 09W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 09W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE SST AND OHC, UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CAUSING A
SLOW DOWN IN INTENSITY.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR.
DESPITE INCREASING VWS, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, SST AND OHC WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 96 LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS.  AFTER TAU 96, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF LOWER OHC VALUE AND
COOLER SST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACH THE
EASTERN COAST OF CHINA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH REMAINS
THE SOLE OUTLIER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS HIGH.//
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