Tropical Storm SARIKA Advisory 16 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED
10NM EYE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION FURTHER DEEPENED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE WHICH LINED
UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 151059Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 24W IS TRACKING IN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. IT IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR BALER, QUEZON, AND WILL EXIT INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 NEAR LINGAYEN GULF. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 80 KNOTS OVER LUZON; HOWEVER, FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO THE SCS, PROMOTING A SECOND
INTENSIFICATION PHASE - 95 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ISLAND OF HAINAN
BEFORE TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY SARIKA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GULF
OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM. TY 24W WILL
GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN MOSTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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