Tropical Storm FOURTEEN Advisory 24 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM
NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNDER THE PRESENCE OF
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
AND A 231723Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND LOWERED DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, NOW IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE RJTD
ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TD 14W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY NOW REFLECTS AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
TRACK DUE TO INTERACTION WITH DISTURBANCE 92W.
   B. IN THE NEAR FORECAST TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE AS A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. BY TAU 36 TO 48 THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE 92W
CURRENTLY AT THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH.
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS BOTH TD 14W AND DISTURBANCE
92W CONSOLIDATE TOGETHER AND MERGE. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A NORTHERN TRACK INTO COOLER WATERS
WILL SUBSTANTIALLY HINDER THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 14W WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERN TRACK
AS A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COOLER
WATERS AND POOR UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL HELP WEAKEN TD 14W, AND
FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TD 14W AND AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE.
NAVGEM, COAMPS AND ECMWF EACH LOSE THE ALREADY WEAK VORTICITY
SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 14W BEFORE INTERACTING WITH 92W,
HOWEVER THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS GO ON TO DEVELOP 92W INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. IN THIS SCENARIO, 14W MAY BE FINAL WARNED SIGNIFICANTLY
SOONER THAN EXPECTED, WITH A STRONG POTENTIAL OF A SEPARATE SYSTEM
FORMING FROM 92W. HOWEVER, HWRF, GFDN, GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE SHOW A
SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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