Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory 05 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. A 041839Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP,
PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES
AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS
BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 10W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 24. MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS LINFA TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF LUZON. MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST, BUT FAVORABLE
SST AND OHC WILL ALLOW TS 10W TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER
LUZON STRAIT. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, SLOW MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING TREND ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS, WITH
NAVGEM AND GFDN ERRONEOUSLY TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND THE REMAINING GUIDANCE RECURVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AT
VARYING DEGREES. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE BREAK IN THE STR, POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH
TS 09W, AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 48 AND THE
POOR MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL
REMAINS LOW.//
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