Tropical Storm KUJIRA Advisory 24 Ιούν.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 74 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SUPPORTED
BY A 231431Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 30
TO 35 KNOT WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER IMAGE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS KUJIRA IS
MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR REORIENTS DUE TO A PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TS KUJIRA WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
NEXT SIX HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM AND WEAKEN DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PAST 12 HOUR PERSISTENCE.//
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