Tropical Storm AERE Advisory 08 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OBSCURING THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071851Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
THE LIMITED CONVECTION. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5
(55 KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW, SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST. TS 22W
HAS TRACKED QUASI-STATIONARY DUE ITS POSITION WITHIN A WEAK,
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE RECEDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING STR OVER CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW AND
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO THE STR BUILDING OVER CHINA NEAR TAU 36. DURING THIS
TIME, LOW VWS AND SLOW TRACK SPEED OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION; TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING STR WILL INCREASE VWS AND CAUSE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
TRIGGERING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 22W WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND AS THE STR OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA BUILDS. THE
INCREASED VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECAY, WITH TS 22W DISSIPATING PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER HAINAN BY TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
NNNN