Tropical Storm NANMADOL Advisory 03 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   022100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 124.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
IMAGERY FROM THE MIYAKO-JIMA RADAR STATION SHOWS MODERATE RAIN
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER ENVELOPE OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS)
AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA
OF 43 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED OVER. A 021327Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS THE HIGHEST WINDS CONCENTRATED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A SMALLER WIND FIELD REFLECTED IN THE ADJUSTED WIND
RADII. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLY JET AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SSTS ARE ALSO WARM NEAR 29 CELSIUS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO
THE EAST IS CURRENTLY STEERING TS 05W ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST COURSE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 24. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE SUPPORTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
TO 55 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.  SSTS WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR SASEBO, JAPAN AROUND TAU 30.  LAND INTERACTION WILL
WEAKEN TS 05W AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS HONSHU TRANSITIONING
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TS 05W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 54.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
NNNN