Tropical Storm SARIKA Advisory 13 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTY-FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND AN OBSCURED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A
121747Z AMSU 89 GHZ PASS, INDICATES THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED AND
DISORGANIZED, WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF THE BROAD BANDING FEATURES IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T2.0 (30 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING TUTT CELL TO THE
EAST WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW MECHANISM ONCE ESTABLISHED.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
   B. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS CURRENTLY DUE TO THE INTIAL POSITIONING, WHICH MAY
REQUIRE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS NOTED, AS WELL AS A
POOL OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG ITS PATH, THERE IS AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36. FORECAST
INTENSITIES PRIOR TO LANDFALL HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS SLIGHTLY TO
A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS A RESULT. HOWEVER, THE ACTUAL PEAK
MAY OCCUR AFTER TAU 72, PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 24W WILL MOVE ACROSS LUZON,
PHILIPPINES AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA (SCS). RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SCS AS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE STR CAUSING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE STR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE
INITIAL POSITIONING AND THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD AFTER TAU 72,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN