Tropical Storm AERE Advisory 07 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES AND LINED UP WITH THE LLCC IN
THE 061346Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. TS AERE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND IMPROVED DUAL OUTFLOW. ALSO, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 30 CELSIUS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED DOWN BUT
IS STILL TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W WILL TRACK EVEN SLOWER AND GENERALLY WESTWARD THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. NEAR TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL REACH A COL BETWEEN THE
STEERING STR AND A SECONDARY STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN CHINA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION BEFORE THE SECONDARY
STR ASSUMES STEERING - NEAR TAU 48. AT THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVING IN THE NEAR
TERM, ALLOWING THE STORM TO REACH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS, SUSTAINED UP TO
TAU 48 DURING THE QS STAGE. AFTERWARDS, THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEW
STR WILL INCREASE VWS AND PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, TRIGGERING A
WEAKENING TREND.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE STR OVER CHINA WILL PUSH TS AERE
ON A SOLID SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS HAINAN. THE INCREASED VWS
AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECAY WITH TS 22W
DISSIPATING JUST AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER HAINAN BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLICATED
STEERING ENVIRONMENT PAST TAU 12. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
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