Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory 23 Σεπ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE DEEP CONVECTION
WEAKENING TREND AND SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON EIR ANIMATION AND 221646Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS
16W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOT) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). FUNG-WONG IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND SPEEDING
UP AS THE SYSTEM GETS ABSORBED IN THE WESTERLIES. AS TS 16W STARTS
TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, IT WILL BECOME A
WEAK COLD-CORE LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, 06Z ON THE
24TH. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO LEADING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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