Tropical Storm FUNG-WONG Advisory 22 Σεπ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING
NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE
TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EIR LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND WRAP EVEN AS
ELONGATION DUE TO SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
RADAR FIXES FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU AND FROM RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING AN EYE FEATURE ON A 211522Z 37
GHZ TRMM PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TS 16W HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SAME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES IS PROVIDING A VIGOROUS POLEWARD
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   B. TS FUNG-WONG IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEN
RECURVE SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING STR IS WEAKENED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES
WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS;
AFTERWARDS, GREATLY INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, TS 16W WILL UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A WEAK COLD-CORE LOW IN THE
YELLOW SEA BY END OF FORECAST. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPREAD
APPROXIMATELY 40 DEGREES WITH AEMI ON THE LEFT AND CTCI ON THE RIGHT
MARGINS OF THE ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
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