MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNDER THE PRESENCE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 231723Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND LOWERED DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, NOW IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TD 14W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY NOW REFLECTS AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK DUE TO INTERACTION WITH DISTURBANCE 92W. B. IN THE NEAR FORECAST TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BY TAU 36 TO 48 THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE 92W CURRENTLY AT THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS BOTH TD 14W AND DISTURBANCE 92W CONSOLIDATE TOGETHER AND MERGE. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A NORTHERN TRACK INTO COOLER WATERS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY HINDER THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 14W WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERN TRACK AS A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COOLER WATERS AND POOR UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL HELP WEAKEN TD 14W, AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF TD 14W AND AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE. NAVGEM, COAMPS AND ECMWF EACH LOSE THE ALREADY WEAK VORTICITY SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TD 14W BEFORE INTERACTING WITH 92W, HOWEVER THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS GO ON TO DEVELOP 92W INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN THIS SCENARIO, 14W MAY BE FINAL WARNED SIGNIFICANTLY SOONER THAN EXPECTED, WITH A STRONG POTENTIAL OF A SEPARATE SYSTEM FORMING FROM 92W. HOWEVER, HWRF, GFDN, GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE SHOW A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN