MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. A
141456Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS TY HALOLA IS LOCATED IN A MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS AND
GOOD POLDWARD OUTFLOW. TY HALOLA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 01C WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
IMPROVE, SLOWLY INTENSIFY TY 01C.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY HALOLA WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
AGAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STEERING STR AXIS.
EXPECT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION TO INCREASE AS TY 01C REGAINS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINING UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 4
CYCLES, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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