Tropical Storm MATMO Advisory 22 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS AN EXPANSION OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF TY 10W. THE CURRENT POSITIONING IS
BASED ON THE POSITION FIX FROM PGTW AND EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFI-
DENCE. INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS AS DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS SUPPORTING THE
RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
VERY FAVORABLE (39 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS FORECAST ACCELERATES THE WEAKENING TREND OVER TAIWAN AND
AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES OVER EASTERN CHINA, LEADING TO A DISSIPATION
SCENARIO BY TAU 96.
   B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND FAVORABLE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS, LEADING TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER TAIWAN AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL CAUSE TY 10W TO WEAKEN QUICKLY. DUE TO THE
QUICK TRACK OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE ADEQUATE
TIME TO RE-CONSOLIDATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. INCREASING FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS AFTER TAU 36 WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TY 10W, WITH DISSIPATION
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY MATMO TO TURN
POLEWARD AROUND TAU 48. BY TAU 72, TY 10W WILL BE WELL INLAND AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, RAPID DECAYING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. TY 10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEMI-
STATIONARY MID-LATITUDE BOUNDARY, OVER EASTERN CHINA, EXTENDING
THROUGH SOUTHERN KOREA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A POSSIBLE
ABSORPTION OF THE REMNANT LOW INTO THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
96. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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