Tropical Storm RAMMASUN Advisory 19 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST OF
HANOI,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 20-NM EYE AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS
IT EMERGED IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY RAMMASUN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN JUST OVER SIX HOURS
IN SOUTHERN CHINA JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH VIETNAM BEFORE
RAPIDLY DECAYING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN
CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 80 KNOTS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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