Tropical Storm NEOGURI Advisory 06 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STEADY IMPROVEMENT WITHIN THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE. COLDER CLOUD-
TOP TEMPERATURES AND A MORE SYMMETRIC EYE HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. POSITIONING IS BASED ON THIS WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE,
WITH INTENSITY INCREASING BASED ON THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH
THE OBSERVED IMPROVEMENTS, INDICATING 115 KNOTS, BUT THE CURRENT
FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN OBSERVED CONVEC-
TION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING THE VIGOROUS
LEVELS OF OUTFLOW AS TY 08W TRACKS OVER VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS AT LOW VALUES 05 TO 10 KNOTS AS TY 08W TRACKS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36, BUT WILL BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD BEYOND THIS POINT AS
THE STR BEGINS TO RE-ALIGN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SERIES OF TRANS-
ITORY MID-LATITUDE LOWS, ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE KOREAN PENIN-
SULA AND ANOTHER BUILDING LOW OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF JAPAN.
BY TAU 48, TY 08W WILL CREST THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TAU 72. TY 08W WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE SSTS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
BEYOND TAU 48, SSTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND INCREASING
INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
STRUCTURE OF TY 08W.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 08W WILL GRADUALLY RECURVE AND TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KYUSHU, JAPAN AS THE STR BEGINS TO SEE
INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LATITUDE LOWS.
THE INCREASED MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION, DECREASING SST VALUES, AND
THE START OF LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION.
HOWEVER, TY 08W WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN. AROUND TAU 96, TY NEOGURI WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. THE
JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
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