Tropical Storm TWELVE Advisory 23 Ιουλ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 230421Z GPM 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVED TIGHTLY CURVED, BUT BROKEN, SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE GPM IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND
SUPPORTED BY A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DISPLACING THE LIMITED CONVECTION TO THE
WEST, OVER LAND, WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR
SURROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 12W IS TRACKING
WITH THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAUSED BY
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY TY 01C PASSING TO THE NORTH. THE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TY 01C WILL CAUSE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER TD 12W, CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH
MINIMAL, IF ANY, INTENSIFICATION FORECASTED. DUE TO THE LIMITED
GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED INTERACTION BETWEEN TY 01C AND TD 12W,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST.//
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