MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 12// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD, FULLY EXPOSING A NOW RAGGED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LLCC FEATURE ON THE NPP 882BT MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER TWO COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS: A WEAKENED EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR TD HAISHEN WILL NOT CHANGE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS SUCH, IT WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH VWS AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE ITS DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. THERE REMAINS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN