Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory 31 Μάρ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY
OUTLINED 10-NM EYE, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE EYE FEATURE IS ALSO READILY APPARENT ON RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES INCLUDING 301221Z GPM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CLOSELY-SPACED DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REFLECTS RAPID INTENSFICATION OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY
04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 CELSIUS) AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TY 04W SHOULD TRACK
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH. AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF 190 NM
AT TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 04W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN
STR AND ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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