Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory 30 Μάρ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 611 NM EAST OF
YAP HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTRAL CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 291633Z MHS COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW, EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77-90 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTED BY A SATCON
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 81 KNOTS. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY MAYSAK IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SSTS (29 CELSIUS). BEYOND TAU 48, TY 04W
WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE TYPHOON WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASED VWS AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND.
   C. NEAR TAU 96, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE STEERING STR CAUSING THE STR TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM,
CREATING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS TY 04W CONTINUES TO GAIN
LATITUDE IT WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED VWS (20-25 KNOT).
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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