Tropical Storm SARIKA Advisory 17 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT RESEMBLES A LARGE, RAGGED EYE FILLED WITH SCATTERED
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL
OUTFLOW OVER WARM SSTS. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF TY
24W STILL ATTEMPTING TO RECOVER AFTER INTERACTION WITH LUZON. IF THE
LARGE AND RAGGED EYE CAN CONSOLIDATE WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR THE LLCC, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER TRAVERSING THE GULF
OF TONKIN, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FINAL LANDFALL IN EXTREME
NORTHERN VIETNAM RIGHT AROUND TY 72W.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE
NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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