Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory 09 Αυγ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF A STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 15W HAS BEGUN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN MORE POLEWARD
THEN NORTHEASTWARD. MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, ALLOWING ONLY
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24, VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE, SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER, TS 15W IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS MOLAVE WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 15W
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STORM MOTION HAS BECOME MORE SOLID AND
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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