Tropical Storm VAMCO Advisory 14 Σεπ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (VAMCO) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 131839Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC
WITH DEEP CURVED BANDING AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 131434Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE
AND A PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 30
CELSIUS. TS 19W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS VAMCO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM IN 18 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TS 19W WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT TRACKS INLAND.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 OR POSSIBLY
SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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