Tropical Storm MUJIGAE Advisory 03 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021825Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, 34-KNOT WIND
RADII REMAIN ASYMMETRIC BUT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE 021258Z
ASCAT DATA.
   B. TS MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING
A LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR TAU 36. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION,
PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, TS 22W WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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