Tropical Storm KOPPU Advisory 19 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KOPPU) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KOPPU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
(EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS THE
MAIN CONVECTION HAS SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND ILL-DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ON COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOPS FROM THE PHILIPPINES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS BEING PARTLY OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.
LAND INTERACTION DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LUZON CONTINUES TO RETARD
THE SYSTEM FROM CONSOLIDATING, HOWEVER. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 24W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH NUDGES IT EASTWARD BACK
INTO LUZON AT THE NORTHWESTERN POINT NEAR LAOAG, ALBEIT MOMENTARILY.
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TY 24W WILL EXIT INTO THE LUZON STRAIT,
DEGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY KOPPU WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS
A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE TYPHOON WILL
RE-INTENSIFY AS LOW VWS, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS PREVAIL. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD AND A BIFURCATION
LEADING TO AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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