Tropical Storm PHANFONE Advisory 06 Οκτ.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 18W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 10-NM RAGGED EYE WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE EIR LOOP WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
MATCHING DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 18W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
STRONG (GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
VIGOROUS OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE THAT IS SUSTAINING
THE REMNANT CONVECTION. TY 18W IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 18W WILL BE QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT
COMPLETES ETT. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY INTENSE STORM
FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
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